Washington Capitals at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Connor McMichaelGoals2
- Pierre-Luc DuboisAssists2
- Connor McMichaelPoints2
Avalanche- Parker KellyGoals1
- Parker KellyAssists1
- Parker KellyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:57Rasmus Sandin Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (19), John Carlson (10)5–2
- P29:21Jakob Chychrun Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (10)4–2
- P24:03Nikolai Kovalenko Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Parker Kelly (2), Miles Wood (1)3–2
- P21:53Connor McMichael Goal (12) Backhand, assists: none3–1
- P17:48Connor McMichael Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (7), Trevor van Riemsdyk (8)2–1
- P14:25Jakub Vrana Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (9), Alex Ovechkin (10)1–1
- P12:00Parker Kelly Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:25Jakub Vrana Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (9), Alex Ovechkin (10)WSH 1 – 1 COL · WSH 26% → 39% +13WSH 26% → 39%+13 pts
- P17:48Connor McMichael Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (7), Trevor van Riemsdyk (8)WSH 2 – 1 COL · WSH 39% → 55% +15WSH 39% → 55%+15 pts
- P21:53Connor McMichael Goal (12) Backhand, assists: noneWSH 3 – 1 COL · WSH 59% → 75% +16WSH 59% → 75%+16 pts
- P24:03Nikolai Kovalenko Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Parker Kelly (2), Miles Wood (1)WSH 3 – 2 COL · COL 24% → 40% +17COL 24% → 40%+17 pts
- P29:21Jakob Chychrun Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (10)WSH 4 – 2 COL · WSH 62% → 79% +17WSH 62% → 79%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- COL 61%
- ML WSH +150 / COL -175
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- COL: Elo 61.5%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- COL -159
- WSH +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.9 – 3.6 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +18 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · COL: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.45 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +81 Elo | COL 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 60.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 324.1 | Goals scored | 3.511th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.730th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+1.2 | Margin | −0.217th of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.5% | Shot share | 54.8%4th of 32 |
| 15th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 87.2%32nd of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 9th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 6–518th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–6 | 6–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 4–8 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–6 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 0–2 COL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.