Washington Capitals at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Connor McMichaelGoals2
- Dylan StromeAssists3
- Dylan StromePoints3
Blues- Matthew KesselAssists1
- Jordan KyrouPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:45Brandon Duhaime Goal (3) Deflected, assists: John Carlson (9), Taylor Raddysh (4)8–1
- P315:27Michael Sgarbossa Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (3), Martin Fehervary (3)7–1
- P310:20Connor McMichael Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (18), John Carlson (8)6–1
- P33:51Rasmus Sandin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Sgarbossa (1), Andrew Mangiapane (2)5–1
- P32:09Alex Ovechkin Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (17), Tom Wilson (6)4–1
- P210:53Jakob Chychrun Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (7), Tom Wilson (5)3–1
- P27:42Alex Ovechkin Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (8), Dylan Strome (16)2–1
- P17:07Scott Perunovich Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Kessel (2), Jordan Kyrou (8)1–1
- P10:59Connor McMichael Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:59Connor McMichael Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (3)WSH 1 – 0 STL · WSH 56% → 70% +14WSH 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P17:07Scott Perunovich Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Kessel (2), Jordan Kyrou (8)WSH 1 – 1 STL · STL 30% → 44% +15STL 30% → 44%+15 pts
- P27:42Alex Ovechkin Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (8), Dylan Strome (16)WSH 2 – 1 STL · WSH 55% → 73% +18WSH 55% → 73%+18 pts
- P210:53Jakob Chychrun Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (7), Tom Wilson (5)WSH 3 – 1 STL · WSH 74% → 88% +14WSH 74% → 88%+14 pts
- P32:09Alex Ovechkin Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (17), Tom Wilson (6)WSH 4 – 1 STL · WSH 92% → 98% +6WSH 92% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 56%
- ML WSH -140 / STL +120
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.9 pts
- WSH: Elo 42.3%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- WSH -128
- STL +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.4 – 3.1 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +1 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +54 Elo | STL 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.9 | Goals scored | 2.624th of 32 |
| 8th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.9 | Margin | −0.522nd of 32 |
| 9th of 3252.1% | Shot share | 45.8%28th of 32 |
| 16th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 90.4%13th of 32 |
| 5th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 9th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 4–314th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–5 | 9–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 9–3 |
| Overs–unders | 7–6 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–1 STL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.