Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- John TavaresGoals1
- John TavaresAssists1
- John TavaresPoints2
Capitals- Aliaksei ProtasGoals1
- Aliaksei ProtasAssists1
- Aliaksei ProtasPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT4:13John Tavares Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (17)4–3
- P319:12Mitch Marner Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (9), William Nylander (8)3–3
- P315:51William Nylander Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (4)2–3
- P217:48Aliaksei Protas Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (6), Alex Ovechkin (9)1–3
- P118:33Dylan Strome Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (9), Matt Roy (2)1–2
- P112:11Bobby McMann Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: John Tavares (7), Pontus Holmberg (2)1–1
- P111:12Taylor Raddysh Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Connor McMichael (7), Pierre-Luc Dubois (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:12Taylor Raddysh Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Connor McMichael (7), Pierre-Luc Dubois (8)TOR 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 57% → 72% +15WSH 57% → 72%+15 pts
- P112:11Bobby McMann Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: John Tavares (7), Pontus Holmberg (2)TOR 1 – 1 WSH · TOR 28% → 43% +15TOR 28% → 43%+15 pts
- P118:33Dylan Strome Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (9), Matt Roy (2)TOR 1 – 2 WSH · WSH 57% → 73% +16WSH 57% → 73%+16 pts
- P319:12Mitch Marner Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (9), William Nylander (8)TOR 3 – 3 WSH · TOR <1% → 49% +49TOR <1% → 49%+49 pts
- OT4:13John Tavares Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (17)TOR 4 – 3 WSH · TOR 49% → >99% +51TOR 49% → >99%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 58%
- ML TOR +130 / WSH -150
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- WSH: Elo 60.2%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- WSH -138
- TOR +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.0 – 3.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −12 | +6 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.31 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +72 Elo | WSH 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 57.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 4.22nd of 32 |
| 5th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +1.43rd of 32 |
| 12th of 3251.5% | Shot share | 52.1%9th of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.7% | Save percentage | 90.4%14th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 26th of 322–5 | Road vs home | 7–25th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–7 | 9–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–7 | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 6–11 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 3–0 WSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.