Buffalo Sabres at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Ryan McLeodGoals1
- Jason ZuckerAssists1
- Ryan McLeodPoints1
Flyers- Egor ZamulaGoals1
- Anthony RichardAssists2
- Egor ZamulaPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:42Travis Konecny Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (6)2–5
- P318:55Ryan McLeod Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (9), Rasmus Dahlin (11)2–4
- P310:06Rasmus Dahlin Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (12), Jason Zucker (9)1–4
- P217:07Travis Konecny Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (9), Travis Sanheim (6)0–4
- P22:08Egor Zamula Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Richard (4), Matvei Michkov (8)0–3
- P116:01Travis Sanheim Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Egor Zamula (5), Travis Konecny (11)0–2
- P113:57Tyson Foerster Goal (3) Poke, assists: Anthony Richard (3), Joel Farabee (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:57Tyson Foerster Goal (3) Poke, assists: Anthony Richard (3), Joel Farabee (5)BUF 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 50% → 66% +16PHI 50% → 66%+16 pts
- P116:01Travis Sanheim Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Egor Zamula (5), Travis Konecny (11)BUF 0 – 2 PHI · PHI 67% → 80% +14PHI 67% → 80%+14 pts
- P22:08Egor Zamula Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Richard (4), Matvei Michkov (8)BUF 0 – 3 PHI · PHI 82% → 92% +10PHI 82% → 92%+10 pts
- P217:07Travis Konecny Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (9), Travis Sanheim (6)BUF 0 – 4 PHI · PHI 96% → >99% +3PHI 96% → >99%+3 pts
- P310:06Rasmus Dahlin Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (12), Jason Zucker (9)BUF 1 – 4 PHI · BUF <1% → <1% +0BUF <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 50%
- ML BUF -110 / PHI -110
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- PHI: Elo 49.9%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -100
- BUF -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.3 – 3.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −19 | −18 | BUF: Devon Levi: team allows 0.47 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · PHI: Ivan Fedotov: team allows 0.45 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF 0 Elo | BUF 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.919th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.826th of 32 |
| 20th of 3248.8% | Shot share | 48.2%23rd of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 88.4%28th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 16th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 3–422nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–9 | 7–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 10–7 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 2–1 PHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.