Montreal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals2
- Juraj SlafkovskyAssists3
- Nick SuzukiPoints4
Sabres- Tage ThompsonGoals1
- Alex TuchAssists2
- Alex TuchPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:11Christian Dvorak Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Anderson (5), Nick Suzuki (11)7–5
- P312:58Cole Caufield Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (10), Mike Matheson (10)6–5
- P310:50Emil Heineman Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (10)5–5
- P33:51JJ Peterka Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Owen Power (9)4–5
- P31:58Rasmus Dahlin Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (4)4–4
- P219:35Nick Suzuki Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (9), Kirby Dach (6)4–3
- P219:13Nick Suzuki Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (8), Kirby Dach (5)3–3
- P26:44Peyton Krebs Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Bowen Byram (7), Owen Power (8)2–3
- P25:45Dylan Cozens Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (10), Alex Tuch (10)2–2
- P25:26Cole Caufield Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Lane Hutson (9), Nick Suzuki (10)2–1
- P14:42Tage Thompson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (9), Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (1)1–1
- P14:14Josh Anderson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (5), Brendan Gallagher (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P219:35Nick Suzuki Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (9), Kirby Dach (6)MTL 4 – 3 BUF · MTL 40% → 64% +25MTL 40% → 64%+25 pts
- P31:58Rasmus Dahlin Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (4)MTL 4 – 4 BUF · BUF 34% → 60% +26BUF 34% → 60%+26 pts
- P33:51JJ Peterka Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Owen Power (9)MTL 4 – 5 BUF · BUF 59% → 83% +23BUF 59% → 83%+23 pts
- P310:50Emil Heineman Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (10)MTL 5 – 5 BUF · MTL 13% → 43% +30MTL 13% → 43%+30 pts
- P312:58Cole Caufield Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (10), Mike Matheson (10)MTL 6 – 5 BUF · MTL 44% → 82% +38MTL 44% → 82%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 67%
- ML MTL +195 / BUF -230
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- BUF: Elo 66.9%, market 67.3%
- Fair odds
- BUF -206
- MTL +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.7 – 3.8 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1435 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | +7 | MTL: Cayden Primeau: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +122 Elo | BUF 66.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 62.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 67.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 32 |
| 32nd of 324.1 | Goals allowed | 3.111th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.5 | Margin | +0.314th of 32 |
| 31st of 3243.9% | Shot share | 48.6%20th of 32 |
| 31st of 3287.8% | Save percentage | 90.1%15th of 32 |
| 32nd of 322–8 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 31st of 321–6 | Road vs home | 5–311th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–9 | 8–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | — | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 6–9 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–6 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 2–2 BUF in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 4.