St. Louis Blues at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Pavel BuchnevichGoals1
- Brayden SchennAssists2
- Brayden SchennPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:33
Rasmus Dahlin Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (8), Jack Quinn (4)3–4 - P312:57Alex Tuch Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (6), Bowen Byram (8)3–3
- P217:15Brandon Saad Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (6), Dylan Holloway (4)3–2
- P25:25Pavel Buchnevich Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (10), Jake Neighbours (3)2–2
- P116:49Ryan McLeod Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Bryson (2), Alex Tuch (11)1–2
- P112:47Zach Benson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (4), Owen Power (10)1–1
- P13:11Brandon Saad Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (5), Colton Parayko (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:47Zach Benson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (4), Owen Power (10)STL 1 – 1 BUF · BUF 43% → 59% +16BUF 43% → 59%+16 pts
- P25:25Pavel Buchnevich Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (10), Jake Neighbours (3)STL 2 – 2 BUF · STL 25% → 42% +17STL 25% → 42%+17 pts
- P217:15Brandon Saad Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (6), Dylan Holloway (4)STL 3 – 2 BUF · STL 43% → 66% +23STL 43% → 66%+23 pts
- P312:57Alex Tuch Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (6), Bowen Byram (8)STL 3 – 3 BUF · BUF 17% → 54% +37BUF 17% → 54%+37 pts
- OT1:33Rasmus Dahlin Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (8), Jack Quinn (4)STL 3 – 4 BUF · BUF 53% → 94% +42BUF 53% → 94%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 61%
- ML STL +145 / BUF -170
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- BUF: Elo 54.7%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- BUF -154
- STL +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.9 – 3.6 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −22 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · BUF: Devon Levi: team allows 0.55 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +33 Elo | BUF 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 65.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 63.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.411th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.324th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.9 | Margin | +0.114th of 32 |
| 28th of 3245.7% | Shot share | 48.4%22nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 89.3%20th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 14th of 323–4 | Road vs home | 5–414th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–6 | 8–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 10–4 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–8 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 2–0 BUF in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.