Boston Bruins at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals1
- David PastrnakAssists1
- David PastrnakPoints2
Blues- Brayden SchennGoals1
- Jordan KyrouAssists1
- Brayden SchennPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:13David Pastrnak Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (3), Pavel Zacha (4)3–2
- P39:15Charlie McAvoy Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (8), Justin Brazeau (3)2–2
- P34:53Morgan Geekie Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (9)1–2
- P212:12Oskar Sundqvist Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (3), Brandon Saad (4)0–2
- P29:24Brayden Schenn Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (9), Pavel Buchnevich (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P29:24Brayden Schenn Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (9), Pavel Buchnevich (6)BOS 0 – 1 STL · STL 42% → 62% +20STL 42% → 62%+20 pts
- P212:12Oskar Sundqvist Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (3), Brandon Saad (4)BOS 0 – 2 STL · STL 64% → 81% +18STL 64% → 81%+18 pts
- P34:53Morgan Geekie Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (9)BOS 1 – 2 STL · BOS 9% → 28% +18BOS 9% → 28%+18 pts
- P39:15Charlie McAvoy Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (8), Justin Brazeau (3)BOS 2 – 2 STL · BOS 23% → 55% +32BOS 23% → 55%+32 pts
- P318:13David Pastrnak Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (3), Pavel Zacha (4)BOS 3 – 2 STL · BOS 52% → 98% +47BOS 52% → 98%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 61%
- ML BOS -170 / STL +145
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 49.5%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- BOS -154
- STL +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.1 – 2.4 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −4 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +3 Elo | STL 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 59.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 2.527th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.526th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.8 | Margin | −0.929th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.3% | Shot share | 46.0%28th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 89.2%23rd of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 25th of 322–5 | Road vs home | 4–416th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–11 | 9–6 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 9–4 |
| Overs–unders | 8–8 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 1–1 STL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.