Colorado Avalanche at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Miles WoodGoals1
- Parker KellyAssists1
- Miles WoodPoints1
Capitals- Pierre-Luc DuboisGoals1
- Tom WilsonAssists1
- Pierre-Luc DuboisPoints1
Scoring summary
- P33:29Miles Wood Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Cale Makar (20), Parker Kelly (3)2–1
- P214:19Mikko Rantanen Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Jonathan Drouin (2)1–1
- P117:04Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Tom Wilson (8), Trevor van Riemsdyk (10)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:04Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Tom Wilson (8), Trevor van Riemsdyk (10)COL 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 43% → 60% +17WSH 43% → 60%+17 pts
- P214:19Mikko Rantanen Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Jonathan Drouin (2)COL 1 – 1 WSH · COL 34% → 56% +22COL 34% → 56%+22 pts
- P33:29Miles Wood Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Cale Makar (20), Parker Kelly (3)COL 2 – 1 WSH · COL 55% → 79% +25COL 55% → 79%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 59%
- ML COL -155 / WSH +135
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 44%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.9 pts
- COL: Elo 42.9%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- COL -143
- WSH +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.5 – 3.0 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | +5 | COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +49 Elo | WSH 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 4.31st of 32 |
| 30th of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 2.810th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +1.63rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.5% | Shot share | 50.4%14th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3287.2% | Save percentage | 90.7%14th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 10th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 7–37th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–13 | 12–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–10 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 12–7 | 12–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 2–1 WSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.