Washington Capitals at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Alex OvechkinGoals3
- Dylan StromeAssists2
- Alex OvechkinPoints3
Golden Knights- Keegan KolesarGoals1
- Alex PietrangeloAssists1
- Keegan KolesarPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:23Alex Ovechkin Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Aliaksei Protas (11), Martin Fehervary (4)5–2
- P217:38Alex Ovechkin Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Roy (3)4–2
- P27:24Keegan Kolesar Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (9), Jack Eichel (23)3–2
- P22:49Jakub Vrana Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (10), Rasmus Sandin (7)3–1
- P119:52Brett Howden Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (12), Tanner Pearson (5)2–1
- P112:26Jakob Chychrun Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (21)2–0
- P15:59Alex Ovechkin Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: John Carlson (11), Dylan Strome (20)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:59Alex Ovechkin Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: John Carlson (11), Dylan Strome (20)WSH 1 – 0 VGK · WSH 47% → 62% +15WSH 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P119:52Brett Howden Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (12), Tanner Pearson (5)WSH 2 – 1 VGK · VGK 20% → 35% +15VGK 20% → 35%+15 pts
- P22:49Jakub Vrana Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (10), Rasmus Sandin (7)WSH 3 – 1 VGK · WSH 66% → 81% +15WSH 66% → 81%+15 pts
- P27:24Keegan Kolesar Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (9), Jack Eichel (23)WSH 3 – 2 VGK · VGK 18% → 33% +16VGK 18% → 33%+16 pts
- P217:38Alex Ovechkin Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Roy (3)WSH 4 – 2 VGK · WSH 71% → 87% +17WSH 71% → 87%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 53%
- ML WSH +105 / VGK -125
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- VGK: Elo 56.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- VGK -114
- WSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.2 – 3.3 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −5 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · VGK: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +45 Elo | VGK 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 59.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.2 | Goals scored | 4.12nd of 32 |
| 9th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.114th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+1.3 | Margin | +1.16th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.5% | Shot share | 51.5%11th of 32 |
| 17th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 89.5%19th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 6th of 324–2 | Road vs home | 8–12nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–6 | 10–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 7–6 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 10–6 | 12–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–1 VGK in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.