Vegas Golden Knights at Utah Hockey Club, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- William KarlssonGoals2
- William KarlssonAssists1
- William KarlssonPoints3
Utah HC- Mikhail SergachevGoals1
- Alexander KerfootAssists1
- Mikhail SergachevPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:31William Karlsson Goal (4) Backhand, assists: none4–2
- P318:42William Karlsson Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Kaedan Korczak (3), Cole Schwindt (5)3–2
- P38:23Tomas Hertl Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: William Karlsson (5), Jack Eichel (22)2–2
- P213:37Tomas Hertl Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Nicolas Roy (7), Jack Eichel (21)1–2
- P26:59Mikhail Sergachev Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (9), Alexander Kerfoot (3)0–2
- P111:16Logan Cooley Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Matias Maccelli (6), Dylan Guenther (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:16Logan Cooley Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Matias Maccelli (6), Dylan Guenther (7)VGK 0 – 1 UTAH · UTAH 47% → 63% +16UTAH 47% → 63%+16 pts
- P26:59Mikhail Sergachev Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (9), Alexander Kerfoot (3)VGK 0 – 2 UTAH · UTAH 67% → 82% +16UTAH 67% → 82%+16 pts
- P213:37Tomas Hertl Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Nicolas Roy (7), Jack Eichel (21)VGK 1 – 2 UTAH · VGK 15% → 31% +16VGK 15% → 31%+16 pts
- P38:23Tomas Hertl Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: William Karlsson (5), Jack Eichel (22)VGK 2 – 2 UTAH · VGK 21% → 51% +30VGK 21% → 51%+30 pts
- P318:42William Karlsson Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Kaedan Korczak (3), Cole Schwindt (5)VGK 3 – 2 UTAH · VGK 50% → >99% +49VGK 50% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 53%
- ML VGK -125 / UTAH +105
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- VGK: Elo 48.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- VGK -114
- UTAH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.3 – 3.2 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +7 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +9 Elo | UTAH 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 51.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 324.1 | Goals scored | 2.820th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.320th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+1.0 | Margin | −0.422nd of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.8% | Shot share | 46.7%26th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 89.4%18th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 26th of 322–5 | Road vs home | 4–314th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–7 | 9–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 12–4 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 1–0 UTAH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.