Carolina Hurricanes at Utah Hockey Club, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Shayne GostisbehereAssists1
- Shayne GostisbeherePoints1
Utah HC- Nick BjugstadGoals2
- Michael KesselringAssists2
- Nick BjugstadPoints2
Scoring summary
- P37:28Nick Bjugstad Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Kesselring (6), Clayton Keller (8)1–4
- P37:11Mikhail Sergachev Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (6), Matias Maccelli (5)1–3
- P35:09Jack McBain Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Kesselring (5)1–2
- P210:04Martin Necas Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (6), Sebastian Aho (11)1–1
- P117:55Nick Bjugstad Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:55Nick Bjugstad Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: noneCAR 0 – 1 UTAH · UTAH 38% → 55% +17UTAH 38% → 55%+17 pts
- P210:04Martin Necas Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (6), Sebastian Aho (11)CAR 1 – 1 UTAH · CAR 40% → 60% +20CAR 40% → 60%+20 pts
- P35:09Jack McBain Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Kesselring (5)CAR 1 – 2 UTAH · UTAH 43% → 71% +28UTAH 43% → 71%+28 pts
- P37:11Mikhail Sergachev Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (6), Matias Maccelli (5)CAR 1 – 3 UTAH · UTAH 73% → 92% +19UTAH 73% → 92%+19 pts
- P37:28Nick Bjugstad Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Kesselring (6), Clayton Keller (8)CAR 1 – 4 UTAH · UTAH 92% → 99% +6UTAH 92% → 99%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 64%
- ML CAR -200 / UTAH +170
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- CAR: Elo 58.2%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- CAR -180
- UTAH +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.7 – 2.8 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1574 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −3 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +57 Elo | CAR 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 61.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 324.2 | Goals scored | 2.723rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.425th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.6 | Margin | −0.725th of 32 |
| 1st of 3257.2% | Shot share | 48.2%24th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 88.3%28th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 4th of 326–2 | Road vs home | 3–316th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–4 | 8–7 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–4 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 6–8 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.