Carolina Hurricanes at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Jordan StaalGoals1
- Jordan StaalAssists1
- Jordan StaalPoints2
Golden Knights- Ivan BarbashevGoals1
- Alexander HoltzAssists1
- Ivan BarbashevPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:47Ivan Barbashev Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Holtz (6), Jack Eichel (19)5–2
- P314:28Jordan Martinook Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (3), Jaccob Slavin (6)5–1
- P36:11Jack Eichel Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–1
- P26:13Tyson Jost Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Jaccob Slavin (5), Jack Drury (4)4–0
- P23:38Jordan Staal Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: none3–0
- P112:46Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (16), Eric Robinson (5)2–0
- P14:24Eric Robinson Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Sean Walker (2), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:24Eric Robinson Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Sean Walker (2), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (8)CAR 1 – 0 VGK · CAR 57% → 71% +14CAR 57% → 71%+14 pts
- P112:46Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (16), Eric Robinson (5)CAR 2 – 0 VGK · CAR 72% → 84% +12CAR 72% → 84%+12 pts
- P23:38Jordan Staal Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: noneCAR 3 – 0 VGK · CAR 86% → 94% +8CAR 86% → 94%+8 pts
- P26:13Tyson Jost Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Jaccob Slavin (5), Jack Drury (4)CAR 4 – 0 VGK · CAR 94% → 98% +4CAR 94% → 98%+4 pts
- P36:11Jack Eichel Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCAR 4 – 1 VGK · VGK <1% → <1% +1VGK <1% → <1%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 57%
- ML CAR -145 / VGK +125
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- CAR: Elo 51.1%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- CAR -133
- VGK +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.5 – 3.0 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1570 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | 0 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +8 Elo | CAR 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 54.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 324.2 | Goals scored | 4.42nd of 32 |
| 6th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.114th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.5 | Margin | +1.35th of 32 |
| 1st of 3257.7% | Shot share | 51.2%14th of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 89.1%24th of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 4th of 325–2 | Road vs home | 8–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–4 | 9–5 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–4 | 6–5 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–8 | 11–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 2–0 VGK in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.