Vegas Golden Knights at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Nicolas RoyGoals1
- Cole SchwindtAssists1
- Tomas HertlPoints1
Ducks- Frank VatranoGoals1
- Brett LeasonAssists2
- Brett LeasonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:46Frank Vatrano Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Leason (3), Alex Killorn (2)3–2
- P34:29Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: none3–1
- P26:43Tomas Hertl Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (20), Shea Theodore (12)2–1
- P119:11Nicolas Roy Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (11), Cole Schwindt (4)1–1
- P117:39Brock McGinn Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (1), Brett Leason (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:39Brock McGinn Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (1), Brett Leason (2)VGK 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 36% → 53% +17ANA 36% → 53%+17 pts
- P119:11Nicolas Roy Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (11), Cole Schwindt (4)VGK 1 – 1 ANA · VGK 47% → 64% +17VGK 47% → 64%+17 pts
- P26:43Tomas Hertl Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (20), Shea Theodore (12)VGK 2 – 1 ANA · VGK 63% → 79% +17VGK 63% → 79%+17 pts
- P34:29Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: noneVGK 3 – 1 ANA · VGK 83% → 95% +13VGK 83% → 95%+13 pts
- P319:46Frank Vatrano Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Leason (3), Alex Killorn (2)VGK 3 – 2 ANA · ANA 0% → <1% +0ANA 0% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 67%
- ML VGK -225 / ANA +190
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.5 pts
- VGK: Elo 58.2%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- VGK -201
- ANA +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.7 – 2.8 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1426 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +4 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +58 Elo | VGK 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 64.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 63.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 324.2 | Goals scored | 2.232nd of 32 |
| 21st of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.114th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+1.0 | Margin | −0.926th of 32 |
| 14th of 3251.0% | Shot share | 44.2%31st of 32 |
| 25th of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 91.7%4th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 30th of 321–5 | Road vs home | 3–421st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–6 | 8–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–5 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 12–3 | 4–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 2–3 ANA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.