Washington Capitals at Utah Hockey Club, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Alex OvechkinGoals2
- Dylan StromeAssists1
- Alex OvechkinPoints2
Utah HC- Jack McBainGoals1
- Kevin StenlundAssists1
- Nick BjugstadPoints1
Scoring summary
- P39:56Aliaksei Protas Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (4)6–2
- P37:30Brandon Duhaime Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor van Riemsdyk (9), Lars Eller (4)5–2
- P211:44Nick Bjugstad Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (13), Clayton Keller (10)4–2
- P25:38Alex Ovechkin Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: John Carlson (12), Dylan Strome (22)4–1
- P111:05Alex Ovechkin Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (11)3–1
- P17:56Nic Dowd Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Duhaime (3), Taylor Raddysh (5)2–1
- P17:46Dylan Strome Goal (6) Wrap-around, assists: none1–1
- P13:05Jack McBain Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Kevin Stenlund (2), Ian Cole (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:05Jack McBain Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Kevin Stenlund (2), Ian Cole (6)WSH 0 – 1 UTAH · UTAH 52% → 67% +14UTAH 52% → 67%+14 pts
- P17:46Dylan Strome Goal (6) Wrap-around, assists: noneWSH 1 – 1 UTAH · WSH 33% → 48% +15WSH 33% → 48%+15 pts
- P17:56Nic Dowd Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Duhaime (3), Taylor Raddysh (5)WSH 2 – 1 UTAH · WSH 48% → 63% +15WSH 48% → 63%+15 pts
- P111:05Alex Ovechkin Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (11)WSH 3 – 1 UTAH · WSH 64% → 78% +14WSH 64% → 78%+14 pts
- P25:38Alex Ovechkin Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: John Carlson (12), Dylan Strome (22)WSH 4 – 1 UTAH · WSH 82% → 92% +10WSH 82% → 92%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Utah HC 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH 52%
- ML WSH +100 / UTAH -120
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- UTAH: Elo 55.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -109
- WSH +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.2 – 3.3 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −2 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · UTAH: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +40 Elo | UTAH 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 56.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.2 | Goals scored | 2.821st of 32 |
| 8th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.323rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+1.4 | Margin | −0.522nd of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.6% | Shot share | 47.1%26th of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 89.4%20th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 4th of 325–2 | Road vs home | 4–417th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–6 | 9–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 11–6 | 7–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.