Florida Panthers at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- A.J. GreerGoals1
- Tomas NosekAssists1
- A.J. GreerPoints1
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals3
- Nikolaj EhlersAssists2
- Mark ScheifelePoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:44Morgan Barron Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–6
- P318:23Morgan Barron Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Lowry (10)3–5
- P316:38Matthew Tkachuk Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (9), Carter Verhaeghe (9)3–4
- P39:46Mark Scheifele Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (12), Nikolaj Ehlers (13)2–4
- P37:10Sam Reinhart Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (8), Aleksander Barkov (15)2–3
- P217:24A.J. Greer Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nate Schmidt (4), Tomas Nosek (2)1–3
- P215:41Mark Scheifele Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (12), Josh Morrissey (17)0–3
- P117:40Mark Scheifele Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (8), Josh Morrissey (16)0–2
- P114:13Kyle Connor Goal (12) Backhand, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:13Kyle Connor Goal (12) Backhand, assists: noneFLA 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 52% → 68% +16WPG 52% → 68%+16 pts
- P117:40Mark Scheifele Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (8), Josh Morrissey (16)FLA 0 – 2 WPG · WPG 68% → 82% +14WPG 68% → 82%+14 pts
- P215:41Mark Scheifele Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (12), Josh Morrissey (17)FLA 0 – 3 WPG · WPG 88% → 96% +8WPG 88% → 96%+8 pts
- P37:10Sam Reinhart Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (8), Aleksander Barkov (15)FLA 2 – 3 WPG · FLA 5% → 21% +15FLA 5% → 21%+15 pts
- P39:46Mark Scheifele Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (12), Nikolaj Ehlers (13)FLA 2 – 4 WPG · WPG 82% → 96% +15WPG 82% → 96%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 52%
- ML FLA +100 / WPG -120
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- WPG: Elo 55.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- WPG -109
- FLA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.7 – 2.8 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +6 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +37 Elo | WPG 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.7 | Goals scored | 4.12nd of 32 |
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.43rd of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +1.71st of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.6% | Shot share | 51.0%12th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 92.2%2nd of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 5th of 325–2 | Road vs home | 8–11st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–8 | 10–8 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–8 | 7–5 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 12–6 | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 1–2 WPG in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.