Florida Panthers at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Aaron EkbladAssists1
- Aaron EkbladPoints1
Blackhawks- Nick FolignoGoals1
- Nick FolignoAssists1
- Nick FolignoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:00Nick Foligno Goal (6) Poke, assists: none1–3
- P210:41Sam Reinhart Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (8), Gustav Forsling (8)1–2
- P210:07Craig Smith Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Patrick Maroon (4), Nick Foligno (3)0–2
- P12:46Teuvo Teravainen Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (2), Alex Vlasic (8)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:46Teuvo Teravainen Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (2), Alex Vlasic (8)FLA 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 33% → 47% +14CHI 33% → 47%+14 pts
- P210:07Craig Smith Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Patrick Maroon (4), Nick Foligno (3)FLA 0 – 2 CHI · CHI 58% → 76% +18CHI 58% → 76%+18 pts
- P210:41Sam Reinhart Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (8), Gustav Forsling (8)FLA 1 – 2 CHI · FLA 23% → 42% +18FLA 23% → 42%+18 pts
- P319:00Nick Foligno Goal (6) Poke, assists: noneFLA 1 – 3 CHI · CHI >99% → >99% +0CHI >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 67%
- ML FLA -230 / CHI +195
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- FLA: Elo 62.1%, market 67.3%
- Fair odds
- FLA -206
- CHI +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.3 – 2.2 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1414 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −16 | +10 | FLA: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.40 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +86 Elo | FLA 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 60.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 67.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.430th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.725th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.3% | Shot share | 46.6%28th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 91.3%8th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 8th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 2–530th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–9 | 8–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–8 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders | 13–6 | 5–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 1–1 CHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.