Chicago Blackhawks at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Ryan DonatoGoals1
- Ryan DonatoPoints1
Kraken- Matty BeniersGoals1
- Jared McCannAssists1
- Jaden SchwartzPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:41Brandon Tanev Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–3
- P33:22Ryan Donato Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–2
- P31:34Jaden Schwartz Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (9), Ryker Evans (7)0–2
- P24:18Matty Beniers Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jared McCann (12), Oliver Bjorkstrand (4)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:18Matty Beniers Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jared McCann (12), Oliver Bjorkstrand (4)CHI 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 57% → 74% +17SEA 57% → 74%+17 pts
- P31:34Jaden Schwartz Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (9), Ryker Evans (7)CHI 0 – 2 SEA · SEA 78% → 93% +14SEA 78% → 93%+14 pts
- P33:22Ryan Donato Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCHI 1 – 2 SEA · CHI 7% → 21% +14CHI 7% → 21%+14 pts
- P319:41Brandon Tanev Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCHI 1 – 3 SEA · SEA >99% → 100% +0SEA >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kraken 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 59%
- ML CHI +135 / SEA -155
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- SEA: Elo 61.3%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- SEA -143
- CHI +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.5 – 3.0 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1423 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +4 | CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +80 Elo | SEA 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 59.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 32 |
| 12th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.116th of 32 |
| 26th of 3246.8% | Shot share | 47.4%25th of 32 |
| 8th of 3291.3% | Save percentage | 90.4%14th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 32 |
| 15th of 324–6 | Road vs home | 4–418th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–8 | 8–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 5–11 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–2 SEA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.