Minnesota Wild at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Kirill KaprizovAssists1
- Mats ZuccarelloPoints1
Blackhawks- Jason DickinsonGoals1
- Jason DickinsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:50Philipp Kurashev Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jones (8)1–2
- P315:29Matt Boldy Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (19), Mats Zuccarello (8)1–1
- P116:44Jason Dickinson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:44Jason Dickinson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMIN 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 39% → 56% +17CHI 39% → 56%+17 pts
- P315:29Matt Boldy Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (19), Mats Zuccarello (8)MIN 1 – 1 CHI · MIN 11% → 54% +43MIN 11% → 54%+43 pts
- OT1:50Philipp Kurashev Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jones (8)MIN 1 – 2 CHI · CHI 47% → 93% +47CHI 47% → 93%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 63%
- ML MIN -190 / CHI +160
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 59.2%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- MIN -170
- CHI +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.6 – 2.9 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1420 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +6 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +64 Elo | MIN 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 60.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.7 | Goals scored | 2.624th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.218th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+1.1 | Margin | −0.622nd of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.6% | Shot share | 47.3%27th of 32 |
| 5th of 3291.5% | Save percentage | 90.8%8th of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–2 | Road vs home | 1–431st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–5 | 7–8 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–5 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders | 8–6 | 5–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–0 CHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.