Anaheim Ducks at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Alex KillornGoals1
- Trevor ZegrasAssists2
- Alex KillornPoints2
Blackhawks- Jason DickinsonGoals2
- Connor BedardAssists2
- Jason DickinsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P39:38Leo Carlsson Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Alex Killorn (5), Trevor Zegras (4)3–2
- P35:10Alex Killorn Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Trevor Zegras (3)2–2
- P23:54Jason Dickinson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (12), Teuvo Teravainen (5)1–2
- P119:05Pavel Mintyukov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Leason (6)1–1
- P117:03Jason Dickinson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (11), TJ Brodie (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:03Jason Dickinson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (11), TJ Brodie (3)ANA 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 60% → 75% +15CHI 60% → 75%+15 pts
- P119:05Pavel Mintyukov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Leason (6)ANA 1 – 1 CHI · ANA 25% → 41% +16ANA 25% → 41%+16 pts
- P23:54Jason Dickinson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (12), Teuvo Teravainen (5)ANA 1 – 2 CHI · CHI 59% → 76% +17CHI 59% → 76%+17 pts
- P35:10Alex Killorn Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Trevor Zegras (3)ANA 2 – 2 CHI · ANA 19% → 44% +25ANA 19% → 44%+25 pts
- P39:38Leo Carlsson Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Alex Killorn (5), Trevor Zegras (4)ANA 3 – 2 CHI · ANA 45% → 78% +32ANA 45% → 78%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blackhawks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CHI 61%
- ML ANA +150 / CHI -175
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- CHI: Elo 57.0%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- CHI -159
- ANA +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.9 – 3.6 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1434 | 1417 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | ANA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −13 | −12 | ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.33 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.31 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +49 Elo | CHI 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 62.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 2.432nd of 32 |
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.724th of 32 |
| 31st of 3244.2% | Shot share | 46.6%28th of 32 |
| 5th of 3291.6% | Save percentage | 91.4%7th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 18th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 2–430th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–6 | 8–10 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders | 5–12 | 5–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 1–3 CHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.