Anaheim Ducks at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Brett LeasonGoals1
- Brett LeasonAssists2
- Brett LeasonPoints3
Stars- Matt DucheneGoals1
- Mavrik BourqueAssists1
- Matt DuchenePoints1
Scoring summary
- P314:32Jackson LaCombe Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Brett Leason (5), Cutter Gauthier (6)4–2
- P312:08Matt Duchene Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Tyler Seguin (8), Mason Marchment (12)3–2
- P33:31Esa Lindell Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mavrik Bourque (2), Jamie Benn (6)3–1
- P27:39Cutter Gauthier Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Brett Leason (4), Alex Killorn (4)3–0
- P15:44Brett Leason Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (2), Radko Gudas (3)2–0
- P10:56Olen Zellweger Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:56Olen Zellweger Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (5)ANA 1 – 0 DAL · ANA 22% → 34% +12ANA 22% → 34%+12 pts
- P15:44Brett Leason Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (2), Radko Gudas (3)ANA 2 – 0 DAL · ANA 36% → 51% +15ANA 36% → 51%+15 pts
- P27:39Cutter Gauthier Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Brett Leason (4), Alex Killorn (4)ANA 3 – 0 DAL · ANA 66% → 82% +16ANA 66% → 82%+16 pts
- P312:08Matt Duchene Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Tyler Seguin (8), Mason Marchment (12)ANA 3 – 2 DAL · DAL 4% → 23% +19DAL 4% → 23%+19 pts
- P314:32Jackson LaCombe Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Brett Leason (5), Cutter Gauthier (6)ANA 4 – 2 DAL · ANA 83% → 99% +15ANA 83% → 99%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 88.6% of 44 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 78%
- ML ANA +340 / DAL -450
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- DAL: Elo 70.4%, market 78.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -360
- ANA +360 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.4 – 4.1 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1428 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −10 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +151 Elo | DAL 70.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 77.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 76.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 78.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.4 | Goals scored | 3.48th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.31st of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.7 | Margin | +1.24th of 32 |
| 31st of 3244.3% | Shot share | 53.9%6th of 32 |
| 8th of 3291.4% | Save percentage | 92.0%4th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 27th of 322–5 | Road vs home | 7–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–6 | 8–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 6–6 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–11 | 6–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 0–3 DAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.