Boston Bruins at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals1
- Morgan GeekieAssists1
- David PastrnakPoints1
Stars- Evgenii DadonovGoals2
- Tyler SeguinAssists2
- Evgenii DadonovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:19Mason Marchment Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Tyler Seguin (6), Matt Duchene (11)2–7
- P33:35David Pastrnak Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (3)2–6
- P30:47Roope Hintz Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (4), Brendan Smith (3)1–6
- P219:49Evgenii Dadonov Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Steel (4), Oskar Bäck (2)1–5
- P215:56Oskar Bäck Goal (1) Poke, assists: Colin Blackwell (3), Esa Lindell (6)1–4
- P214:15Logan Stankoven Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (5), Thomas Harley (7)1–3
- P117:48Charlie Coyle Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Trent Frederic (3), Mason Lohrei (4)1–2
- P16:36Evgenii Dadonov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–2
- P11:09Matt Duchene Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (11), Tyler Seguin (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:09Matt Duchene Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (11), Tyler Seguin (5)BOS 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 61% → 74% +13DAL 61% → 74%+13 pts
- P16:36Evgenii Dadonov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneBOS 0 – 2 DAL · DAL 74% → 85% +11DAL 74% → 85%+11 pts
- P117:48Charlie Coyle Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Trent Frederic (3), Mason Lohrei (4)BOS 1 – 2 DAL · BOS 14% → 25% +12BOS 14% → 25%+12 pts
- P214:15Logan Stankoven Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (5), Thomas Harley (7)BOS 1 – 3 DAL · DAL 77% → 90% +13DAL 77% → 90%+13 pts
- P215:56Oskar Bäck Goal (1) Poke, assists: Colin Blackwell (3), Esa Lindell (6)BOS 1 – 4 DAL · DAL 91% → 97% +6DAL 91% → 97%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 61%
- ML BOS +145 / DAL -170
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- DAL: Elo 60.5%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- DAL -154
- BOS +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.4 – 3.1 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +4 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +74 Elo | DAL 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 59.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.42nd of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.6 | Margin | +0.98th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.8% | Shot share | 52.6%6th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 91.8%3rd of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 18th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 6–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–12 | 7–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–8 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–9 | 5–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 2–1 DAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.