Detroit Red Wings at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals1
- Moritz SeiderAssists2
- Alex DeBrincatPoints2
Ducks- Olen ZellwegerGoals1
- Olen ZellwegerAssists2
- Olen ZellwegerPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:36Ryan Strome Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Frank Vatrano (5), Brian Dumoulin (5)4–6
- P316:16Alex DeBrincat Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (9), Lucas Raymond (14)4–5
- P311:47Ross Johnston Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Jansen Harkins (1), Drew Helleson (2)3–5
- P311:09Cutter Gauthier Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Drew Helleson (1), Brian Dumoulin (4)3–4
- P33:54Troy Terry Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Olen Zellweger (4), Leo Carlsson (4)3–3
- P217:44Trevor Zegras Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Olen Zellweger (3), Alex Killorn (3)3–2
- P21:05Lucas Raymond Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (8)3–1
- P119:16Jonatan Berggren Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (3), Marco Kasper (2)2–1
- P17:59Marco Kasper Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (3), Moritz Seider (8)1–1
- P11:12Olen Zellweger Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (2), Leo Carlsson (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:59Marco Kasper Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (3), Moritz Seider (8)DET 1 – 1 ANA · DET 42% → 57% +16DET 42% → 57%+16 pts
- P119:16Jonatan Berggren Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (3), Marco Kasper (2)DET 2 – 1 ANA · DET 57% → 73% +16DET 57% → 73%+16 pts
- P33:54Troy Terry Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Olen Zellweger (4), Leo Carlsson (4)DET 3 – 3 ANA · ANA 21% → 46% +25ANA 21% → 46%+25 pts
- P311:09Cutter Gauthier Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Drew Helleson (1), Brian Dumoulin (4)DET 3 – 4 ANA · ANA 47% → 81% +34ANA 47% → 81%+34 pts
- P311:47Ross Johnston Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Jansen Harkins (1), Drew Helleson (2)DET 3 – 5 ANA · ANA 82% → 97% +15ANA 82% → 97%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DET 58%
- ML DET -150 / ANA +130
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- DET: Elo 57.2%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- DET -138
- ANA +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.5 – 3.0 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1424 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −14 | DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.35 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +51 Elo | DET 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 2.232nd of 32 |
| 10th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.926th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3243.1% | Shot share | 43.8%31st of 32 |
| 8th of 3291.4% | Save percentage | 91.7%5th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 10th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 3–524th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–8 | 9–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 6–9 | 4–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–1 ANA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.