Dallas Stars at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Mason MarchmentGoals2
- Ilya LyubushkinAssists2
- Mason MarchmentPoints2
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals1
- Jared SpurgeonAssists1
- Kirill KaprizovPoints1
Scoring summary
- P314:10Kirill Kaprizov Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Jared Spurgeon (5), Matt Boldy (8)2–1
- P311:24Mason Marchment Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Steel (5), Ilya Lyubushkin (5)2–0
- P118:43Mason Marchment Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Lyubushkin (4), Tyler Seguin (7)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:43Mason Marchment Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Lyubushkin (4), Tyler Seguin (7)DAL 1 – 0 MIN · DAL 57% → 73% +16DAL 57% → 73%+16 pts
- P311:24Mason Marchment Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Steel (5), Ilya Lyubushkin (5)DAL 2 – 0 MIN · DAL 85% → 98% +13DAL 85% → 98%+13 pts
- P314:10Kirill Kaprizov Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Jared Spurgeon (5), Matt Boldy (8)DAL 2 – 1 MIN · MIN <1% → 11% +10MIN <1% → 11%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 58%
- ML DAL -150 / MIN +130
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.3 pts
- DAL: Elo 49.7%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- DAL -138
- MIN +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.5 – 3.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +10 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +2 Elo | MIN 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.59th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 2.43rd of 32 |
| 4th of 32+1.2 | Margin | +1.16th of 32 |
| 5th of 3253.2% | Shot share | 50.8%14th of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.8% | Save percentage | 91.9%3rd of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 10th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 4–28th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–7 | 10–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–5 | 7–6 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 6–9 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 3–0 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.