Montreal Canadiens at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals1
- Kirill KaprizovAssists1
- Kirill KaprizovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:40Kirill Kaprizov Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Frederick Gaudreau (7)0–3
- P312:19Marco Rossi Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared Spurgeon (4), Declan Chisholm (4)0–2
- P212:43Matt Boldy Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (3), Kirill Kaprizov (20)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P212:43Matt Boldy Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (3), Kirill Kaprizov (20)MTL 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 64% → 81% +18MIN 64% → 81%+18 pts
- P312:19Marco Rossi Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared Spurgeon (4), Declan Chisholm (4)MTL 0 – 2 MIN · MIN 89% → 99% +10MIN 89% → 99%+10 pts
- P319:40Kirill Kaprizov Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Frederick Gaudreau (7)MTL 0 – 3 MIN · MIN 100% → 100% +0MIN 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 70%
- ML MTL +220 / MIN -270
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- MIN: Elo 66.6%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- MIN -234
- MTL +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.7 – 3.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1440 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +8 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +120 Elo | MIN 66.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 74.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 72.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.58th of 32 |
| 32nd of 324.2 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.3 | Margin | +0.97th of 32 |
| 30th of 3244.4% | Shot share | 50.3%17th of 32 |
| 31st of 3287.2% | Save percentage | 91.5%6th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 29th of 322–6 | Road vs home | 3–211th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–9 | 9–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | — | 6–6 |
| Underdog | 7–9 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 10–6 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 0–2 MIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.