Chicago Blackhawks at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Ilya MikheyevGoals1
- Nick FolignoAssists1
- Ilya MikheyevPoints1
Canucks- Teddy BluegerGoals1
- Quinn HughesAssists1
- Teddy BluegerPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:56Teddy Blueger Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (8), Danton Heinen (5)1–4
- P318:04J.T. Miller Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Pius Suter (2)1–3
- P34:25Erik Brannstrom Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (5), Jake DeBrusk (7)1–2
- P24:56Elias Pettersson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (10), Quinn Hughes (14)1–1
- P16:50Ilya Mikheyev Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Foligno (2), Nolan Allan (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:50Ilya Mikheyev Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Foligno (2), Nolan Allan (4)CHI 1 – 0 VAN · CHI 34% → 49% +15CHI 34% → 49%+15 pts
- P24:56Elias Pettersson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (10), Quinn Hughes (14)CHI 1 – 1 VAN · VAN 45% → 63% +19VAN 45% → 63%+19 pts
- P34:25Erik Brannstrom Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (5), Jake DeBrusk (7)CHI 1 – 2 VAN · VAN 59% → 83% +24VAN 59% → 83%+24 pts
- P318:04J.T. Miller Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Pius Suter (2)CHI 1 – 3 VAN · VAN 98% → >99% +2VAN 98% → >99%+2 pts
- P318:56Teddy Blueger Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (8), Danton Heinen (5)CHI 1 – 4 VAN · VAN >99% → 100% +0VAN >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 67%
- ML CHI +195 / VAN -230
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- VAN: Elo 68.1%, market 67.3%
- Fair odds
- VAN -206
- CHI +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.7 – 3.8 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1420 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −13 | −18 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.33 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · VAN: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.44 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +132 Elo | VAN 68.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 67.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 67.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.115th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.322nd of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.117th of 32 |
| 27th of 3246.6% | Shot share | 50.2%16th of 32 |
| 8th of 3291.3% | Save percentage | 88.9%26th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–7 | Road vs home | 2–632nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–9 | 6–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 5–7 |
| Underdog | 7–7 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–12 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 0–4 VAN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.