New York Islanders at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Anders LeeGoals1
- Grant HuttonAssists2
- Anders LeePoints2
Canucks- Tyler MyersGoals1
- Teddy BluegerAssists1
- Tyler MyersPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:34Tyler Myers Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (6)5–2
- P317:54Noah Dobson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Grant Hutton (2), Kyle Palmieri (8)5–1
- P311:42Anders Lee Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (9)4–1
- P22:10Pierre Engvall Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (6), Grant Hutton (1)3–1
- P20:14Scott Mayfield Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (8)2–1
- P117:23Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Anders Lee (6), Oliver Wahlstrom (1)1–1
- P12:40Jonathan Lekkerimaki Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (9), Filip Hronek (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:40Jonathan Lekkerimaki Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (9), Filip Hronek (5)NYI 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 63% → 76% +13VAN 63% → 76%+13 pts
- P117:23Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Anders Lee (6), Oliver Wahlstrom (1)NYI 1 – 1 VAN · NYI 24% → 39% +15NYI 24% → 39%+15 pts
- P20:14Scott Mayfield Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (8)NYI 2 – 1 VAN · NYI 39% → 57% +18NYI 39% → 57%+18 pts
- P22:10Pierre Engvall Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (6), Grant Hutton (1)NYI 3 – 1 VAN · NYI 58% → 74% +17NYI 58% → 74%+17 pts
- P311:42Anders Lee Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (9)NYI 4 – 1 VAN · NYI 97% → >99% +3NYI 97% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 63%
- ML NYI +160 / VAN -190
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- VAN: Elo 62.0%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- VAN -170
- NYI +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.4 – 3.1 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +2 | NYI: Semyon Varlamov: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +85 Elo | VAN 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 61.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.120th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.115th of 32 |
| 17th of 3250.6% | Shot share | 50.6%16th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 89.0%26th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 13th of 324–5 | Road vs home | 2–531st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–10 | 6–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–7 | 5–6 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 10–6 | 6–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 0–2 VAN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.