New York Islanders at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Anders LeeGoals2
- Jean-Gabriel PageauAssists2
- Anders LeePoints2
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals2
- Evan BouchardAssists2
- Evan BouchardPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT1:52Leon Draisaitl Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (12), Evan Bouchard (6)3–4
- P317:20Anders Lee Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (4), Kyle Palmieri (7)3–3
- P312:54Anders Lee Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Pulock (6), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (3)2–3
- P310:19Connor McDavid Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (6)1–3
- P30:57Evan Bouchard Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (8), Connor McDavid (11)1–2
- P215:58Kyle Palmieri Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Maxim Tsyplakov (8), Brock Nelson (3)1–1
- P20:36Leon Draisaitl Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (10), Evan Bouchard (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:36Leon Draisaitl Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (10), Evan Bouchard (5)NYI 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 64% → 79% +15EDM 64% → 79%+15 pts
- P215:58Kyle Palmieri Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Maxim Tsyplakov (8), Brock Nelson (3)NYI 1 – 1 EDM · NYI 20% → 39% +19NYI 20% → 39%+19 pts
- P30:57Evan Bouchard Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (8), Connor McDavid (11)NYI 1 – 2 EDM · EDM 60% → 81% +22EDM 60% → 81%+22 pts
- P317:20Anders Lee Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (4), Kyle Palmieri (7)NYI 3 – 3 EDM · NYI 3% → 46% +43NYI 3% → 46%+43 pts
- OT1:52Leon Draisaitl Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (12), Evan Bouchard (6)NYI 3 – 4 EDM · EDM 54% → 96% +42EDM 54% → 96%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 67%
- ML NYI +190 / EDM -225
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- EDM: Elo 62.9%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- EDM -201
- NYI +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.8 – 3.7 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −3 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +91 Elo | EDM 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 66.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 65.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.724th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.218th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.522nd of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.8% | Shot share | 55.9%2nd of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 88.4%27th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 10th of 324–4 | Road vs home | 2–631st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–10 | 5–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–7 | 4–9 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 9–6 | 4–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 1–1 EDM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.