Calgary Flames at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Justin KirklandGoals1
- Justin KirklandPoints1
Canucks- Erik BrannstromGoals1
- Erik BrannstromAssists1
- Erik BrannstromPoints2
Scoring summary
- P36:19Erik Brannstrom Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (5), Jake DeBrusk (6)1–3
- P22:38Pius Suter Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (8), Erik Brannstrom (3)1–2
- P20:23Elias Pettersson Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: J.T. Miller (7), Quinn Hughes (13)1–1
- P119:00Justin Kirkland Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:00Justin Kirkland Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCGY 1 – 0 VAN · CGY 36% → 53% +17CGY 36% → 53%+17 pts
- P20:23Elias Pettersson Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: J.T. Miller (7), Quinn Hughes (13)CGY 1 – 1 VAN · VAN 46% → 64% +18VAN 46% → 64%+18 pts
- P22:38Pius Suter Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (8), Erik Brannstrom (3)CGY 1 – 2 VAN · VAN 63% → 79% +16VAN 63% → 79%+16 pts
- P36:19Erik Brannstrom Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (5), Jake DeBrusk (6)CGY 1 – 3 VAN · VAN 83% → 96% +12VAN 83% → 96%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 67%
- ML CGY +190 / VAN -225
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- VAN: Elo 65.6%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- VAN -201
- CGY +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.8 – 3.7 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CGY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −6 | −1 | CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +112 Elo | VAN 65.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 70.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 69.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 32 |
| 11th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.322nd of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.115th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.3% | Shot share | 50.5%16th of 32 |
| 10th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 88.4%26th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 18th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 1–532nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–7 | 5–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–11 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 2–3 VAN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.