San Jose Sharks at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- William EklundAssists1
- William EklundPoints1
Stars- Jason RobertsonGoals1
- Jason RobertsonAssists2
- Jason RobertsonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:06Evgenii Dadonov Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Oskar Bäck (3)2–5
- P318:33Roope Hintz Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (6), Jason Robertson (6)2–4
- P313:25Jake Walman Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (13), Cody Ceci (5)2–3
- P210:56Jamie Benn Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (11)1–3
- P20:56Wyatt Johnston Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (5), Jason Robertson (5)1–2
- P118:44Mikael Granlund Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: William Eklund (12)1–1
- P115:33Jason Robertson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Dumba (1), Thomas Harley (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:33Jason Robertson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Dumba (1), Thomas Harley (8)SJ 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 75% → 86% +11DAL 75% → 86%+11 pts
- P118:44Mikael Granlund Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: William Eklund (12)SJ 1 – 1 DAL · SJ 14% → 26% +12SJ 14% → 26%+12 pts
- P20:56Wyatt Johnston Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (5), Jason Robertson (5)SJ 1 – 2 DAL · DAL 74% → 86% +12DAL 74% → 86%+12 pts
- P210:56Jamie Benn Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (11)SJ 1 – 3 DAL · DAL 86% → 94% +9DAL 86% → 94%+9 pts
- P313:25Jake Walman Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (13), Cody Ceci (5)SJ 2 – 3 DAL · SJ <1% → 9% +8SJ <1% → 9%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 88.6% of 44 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 78%
- ML SJ +340 / DAL -450
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- DAL: Elo 75.8%, market 78.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -360
- SJ +360 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.4 – 4.1 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1397 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +6 | SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +198 Elo | DAL 75.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 81.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 80.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 78.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.412th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 2.42nd of 32 |
| 30th of 32−1.0 | Margin | +1.05th of 32 |
| 29th of 3245.4% | Shot share | 54.1%5th of 32 |
| 16th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 91.6%6th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 32nd of 322–9 | Road vs home | 7–12nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–7 | 8–9 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 6–7 |
| Underdog | 13–7 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–12 | 6–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 0–4 DAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.