San Jose Sharks at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Timothy LiljegrenGoals1
- William EklundAssists1
- Timothy LiljegrenPoints1
Rangers- Artemi PanarinAssists1
- Artemi PanarinPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:33Fabian Zetterlund Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (10), Tyler Toffoli (6)2–3
- P216:21Vincent Trocheck Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Artemi Panarin (13), Alexis Lafrenière (7)1–3
- P213:15Jimmy Vesey Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Sam Carrick (3)1–2
- P211:41Mika Zibanejad Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (13), Reilly Smith (7)1–1
- P12:51Timothy Liljegren Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Kunin (4), Nico Sturm (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:51Timothy Liljegren Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Kunin (4), Nico Sturm (3)SJ 1 – 0 NYR · SJ 23% → 36% +13SJ 23% → 36%+13 pts
- P211:41Mika Zibanejad Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (13), Reilly Smith (7)SJ 1 – 1 NYR · NYR 49% → 70% +20NYR 49% → 70%+20 pts
- P213:15Jimmy Vesey Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Sam Carrick (3)SJ 1 – 2 NYR · NYR 69% → 85% +16NYR 69% → 85%+16 pts
- P216:21Vincent Trocheck Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Artemi Panarin (13), Alexis Lafrenière (7)SJ 1 – 3 NYR · NYR 85% → 95% +10NYR 85% → 95%+10 pts
- P319:33Fabian Zetterlund Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (10), Tyler Toffoli (6)SJ 2 – 3 NYR · SJ 0% → <1% +0SJ 0% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 88.6% of 44 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 77%
- ML SJ +320 / NYR -425
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- NYR: Elo 74.8%, market 77.3%
- Fair odds
- NYR -340
- SJ +340 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.4 – 4.1 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1397 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −4 | SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +189 Elo | NYR 74.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 78.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 77.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 77.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.4 | Goals scored | 3.75th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 32 |
| 30th of 32−1.2 | Margin | +1.14th of 32 |
| 29th of 3244.5% | Shot share | 48.9%20th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 92.5%2nd of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 30th of 322–7 | Road vs home | 4–418th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–7 | 7–7 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 6–7 |
| Underdog | 10–7 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 6–11 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 1–1 NYR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.