San Jose Sharks at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Tyler ToffoliGoals2
- William EklundAssists1
- Tyler ToffoliPoints2
Penguins- Bryan RustGoals1
- Owen PickeringAssists1
- Bryan RustPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Evgeni Malkin Goal Wrist Shot2–3
- SO0:00William Eklund Goal Wrist Shot2–3
- SO0:00Anthony Beauvillier Goal Backhand2–3
- SO0:00Sidney Crosby Goal Wrist Shot2–3
- SO0:00Mikael Granlund Goal Wrist Shot2–3
- P311:40Tyler Toffoli Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Ty Dellandrea (1), Jake Walman (9)3–3
- P36:56Mikael Granlund Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (6), William Eklund (11)2–3
- P212:05Tyler Toffoli Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Will Smith (2)1–3
- P24:19Sidney Crosby Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (9), Anthony Beauvillier (3)0–3
- P16:34Jesse Puljujarvi Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Drew O'Connor (3), Owen Pickering (1)0–2
- P11:01Bryan Rust Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Michael Bunting (3), Evgeni Malkin (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:01Bryan Rust Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Michael Bunting (3), Evgeni Malkin (14)SJ 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 65% → 77% +12PIT 65% → 77%+12 pts
- P16:34Jesse Puljujarvi Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Drew O'Connor (3), Owen Pickering (1)SJ 0 – 2 PIT · PIT 77% → 87% +10PIT 77% → 87%+10 pts
- P24:19Sidney Crosby Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (9), Anthony Beauvillier (3)SJ 0 – 3 PIT · PIT 89% → 96% +6PIT 89% → 96%+6 pts
- P36:56Mikael Granlund Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (6), William Eklund (11)SJ 2 – 3 PIT · SJ 4% → 17% +13SJ 4% → 17%+13 pts
- P311:40Tyler Toffoli Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Ty Dellandrea (1), Jake Walman (9)SJ 3 – 3 PIT · SJ 13% → 44% +31SJ 13% → 44%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 65%
- ML SJ +175 / PIT -210
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- PIT: Elo 61.2%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -186
- SJ +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.8 – 3.7 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1396 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | PIT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +5 | 0 | SJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +79 Elo | PIT 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 67.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 66.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.3 | Goals scored | 2.725th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 4.131st of 32 |
| 30th of 32−1.2 | Margin | −1.431st of 32 |
| 29th of 3244.5% | Shot share | 48.6%21st of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 88.6%27th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 30th of 322–8 | Road vs home | 3–525th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–7 | 7–12 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 11–7 | 5–8 |
| Overs–unders | 6–12 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 0–2 PIT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.