Detroit Red Wings at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Michael RasmussenGoals1
- Vladimir TarasenkoAssists1
- Alex DeBrincatPoints1
Sharks- William EklundGoals2
- Alexander WennbergAssists2
- William EklundPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:46Macklin Celebrini Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (12), Cody Ceci (4)4–5
- P317:54Alex DeBrincat Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Lucas Raymond (15), Dylan Larkin (4)4–4
- P36:19Luke Kunin Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Carl Grundstrom (4), Henry Thrun (6)3–4
- P219:18Tyler Toffoli Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (6), Ty Dellandrea (2)3–3
- P28:11Michael Rasmussen Goal (3) , assists: none3–2
- P25:59William Eklund Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mario Ferraro (3), Fabian Zetterlund (7)2–2
- P118:48Marco Kasper Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Gustafsson (3), Vladimir Tarasenko (5)2–1
- P110:28William Eklund Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (5), Jake Walman (10)1–1
- P17:28Dylan Larkin Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Simon Edvinsson (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:11Michael Rasmussen Goal (3) , assists: noneDET 3 – 2 SJ · DET 57% → 75% +18DET 57% → 75%+18 pts
- P219:18Tyler Toffoli Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (6), Ty Dellandrea (2)DET 3 – 3 SJ · SJ 22% → 44% +22SJ 22% → 44%+22 pts
- P36:19Luke Kunin Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Carl Grundstrom (4), Henry Thrun (6)DET 3 – 4 SJ · SJ 45% → 74% +29SJ 45% → 74%+29 pts
- P317:54Alex DeBrincat Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Lucas Raymond (15), Dylan Larkin (4)DET 4 – 4 SJ · DET 3% → 52% +49DET 3% → 52%+49 pts
- OT0:46Macklin Celebrini Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (12), Cody Ceci (4)DET 4 – 5 SJ · SJ 47% → 90% +43SJ 47% → 90%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DET 60%
- ML DET -165 / SJ +140
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- DET: Elo 60.1%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- DET -149
- SJ +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.0 – 2.5 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1394 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −1 | DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +71 Elo | DET 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 60.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 2.432nd of 32 |
| 21st of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.528th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.8 | Margin | −1.231st of 32 |
| 32nd of 3242.5% | Shot share | 44.5%30th of 32 |
| 11th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 90.7%13th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 13th of 324–5 | Road vs home | 3–527th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–10 | 12–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | — |
| Underdog | 7–7 | 12–7 |
| Overs–unders | 7–10 | 7–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–1 SJ in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.