Detroit Red Wings at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Vladimir TarasenkoAssists1
- Vladimir TarasenkoPoints1
Kings- Mikey AndersonGoals1
- Trevor LewisAssists2
- Trevor LewisPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:11Adrian Kempe Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (16), Trevor Lewis (4)1–4
- P318:33Dylan Larkin Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Alex DeBrincat (9), Vladimir Tarasenko (4)1–3
- P30:15Adrian Kempe Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (4), Vladislav Gavrikov (6)0–3
- P118:27Tanner Jeannot Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Trevor Lewis (3), Samuel Helenius (2)0–2
- P118:05Mikey Anderson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (9), Trevor Moore (10)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:05Mikey Anderson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (9), Trevor Moore (10)DET 0 – 1 LA · LA 62% → 77% +15LA 62% → 77%+15 pts
- P118:27Tanner Jeannot Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Trevor Lewis (3), Samuel Helenius (2)DET 0 – 2 LA · LA 77% → 88% +11LA 77% → 88%+11 pts
- P30:15Adrian Kempe Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (4), Vladislav Gavrikov (6)DET 0 – 3 LA · LA 93% → 98% +5LA 93% → 98%+5 pts
- P318:33Dylan Larkin Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Alex DeBrincat (9), Vladimir Tarasenko (4)DET 1 – 3 LA · DET <1% → <1% +0DET <1% → <1%+0 pts
- P319:11Adrian Kempe Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (16), Trevor Lewis (4)DET 1 – 4 LA · LA >99% → 100% +0LA >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- LA 64%
- ML DET +170 / LA -200
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- LA: Elo 61.8%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- LA -180
- DET +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.3 – 3.2 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +11 | +15 | DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.36 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +83 Elo | LA 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 67.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 66.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.6 | Margin | +0.212th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3243.3% | Shot share | 53.0%6th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 89.3%21st of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 10th of 324–4 | Road vs home | 4–28th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–9 | 9–9 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 7–9 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–0 LA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.