Dallas Stars at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Miro HeiskanenGoals1
- Matt DucheneAssists2
- Tyler SeguinPoints2
Hurricanes- Shayne GostisbehereGoals1
- Shayne GostisbehereAssists1
- Shayne GostisbeherePoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:45Andrei Svechnikov Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (16), Jaccob Slavin (7)4–6
- P317:53Martin Necas Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (11), Seth Jarvis (9)4–5
- P314:46Miro Heiskanen Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (8)4–4
- P38:09Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (23), Sebastian Aho (15)3–4
- P33:43Brent Burns Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (6), Jordan Martinook (7)3–3
- P31:10Sebastian Aho Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (8), Dmitry Orlov (10)3–2
- P27:13Mason Marchment Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Seguin (10), Matt Duchene (14)3–1
- P110:15Thomas Harley Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (7), Miro Heiskanen (5)2–1
- P16:36Seth Jarvis Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Sebastian Aho (14)1–1
- P10:18Tyler Seguin Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (13), Matt Duchene (13)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P31:10Sebastian Aho Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (8), Dmitry Orlov (10)DAL 3 – 2 CAR · CAR 11% → 28% +17CAR 11% → 28%+17 pts
- P33:43Brent Burns Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (6), Jordan Martinook (7)DAL 3 – 3 CAR · CAR 26% → 52% +26CAR 26% → 52%+26 pts
- P38:09Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (23), Sebastian Aho (15)DAL 3 – 4 CAR · CAR 52% → 81% +29CAR 52% → 81%+29 pts
- P314:46Miro Heiskanen Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (8)DAL 4 – 4 CAR · DAL 10% → 49% +38DAL 10% → 49%+38 pts
- P317:53Martin Necas Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (11), Seth Jarvis (9)DAL 4 – 5 CAR · CAR 51% → 98% +47CAR 51% → 98%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 54%
- ML DAL +110 / CAR -130
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- CAR: Elo 52.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CAR -119
- DAL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.1 – 3.4 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1572 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −25 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · CAR: Spencer Martin: team allows 0.61 more goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +18 Elo | CAR 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 53.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.93rd of 32 |
| 1st of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 2.55th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+1.2 | Margin | +1.42nd of 32 |
| 4th of 3254.0% | Shot share | 57.2%1st of 32 |
| 5th of 3291.7% | Save percentage | 90.6%15th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 8th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 7–13rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–9 | 13–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–7 | 12–6 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–12 | 7–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 2–0 CAR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.