Carolina Hurricanes at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Jack RoslovicGoals1
- Dmitry OrlovAssists1
- Jack RoslovicPoints1
Devils- Stefan NoesenGoals1
- Stefan NoesenAssists1
- Stefan NoesenPoints2
Scoring summary
- P314:05Jesper Bratt Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Stefan Noesen (8), Jack Hughes (17)2–4
- P310:35Dougie Hamilton Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (7), Tomas Tatar (4)2–3
- P30:12Andrei Svechnikov Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (20), Shayne Gostisbehere (10)2–2
- P20:46Stefan Noesen Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Jack Hughes (16), Jesper Bratt (17)1–2
- P114:45Jesper Bratt Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (15), Ondrej Palat (3)1–1
- P18:43Jack Roslovic Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Eric Robinson (8), Dmitry Orlov (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:43Jack Roslovic Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Eric Robinson (8), Dmitry Orlov (8)CAR 1 – 0 NJ · CAR 49% → 64% +15CAR 49% → 64%+15 pts
- P114:45Jesper Bratt Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (15), Ondrej Palat (3)CAR 1 – 1 NJ · NJ 35% → 51% +16NJ 35% → 51%+16 pts
- P20:46Stefan Noesen Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Jack Hughes (16), Jesper Bratt (17)CAR 1 – 2 NJ · NJ 51% → 68% +17NJ 51% → 68%+17 pts
- P30:12Andrei Svechnikov Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (20), Shayne Gostisbehere (10)CAR 2 – 2 NJ · CAR 26% → 49% +24CAR 26% → 49%+24 pts
- P310:35Dougie Hamilton Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (7), Tomas Tatar (4)CAR 2 – 3 NJ · NJ 50% → 82% +32NJ 50% → 82%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 51%
- ML CAR -105 / NJ -115
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- NJ: Elo 54.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NJ -104
- CAR +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.2 – 3.3 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1579 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CAR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −25 | +10 | CAR: Spencer Martin: team allows 0.62 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +28 Elo | NJ 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 59.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 324.0 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 2.77th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.7 | Margin | +0.87th of 32 |
| 1st of 3257.7% | Shot share | 52.1%9th of 32 |
| 8th of 3291.3% | Save percentage | 91.0%11th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 6th of 327–3 | Road vs home | 3–528th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–5 | 11–10 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–5 | 8–9 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–12 | 9–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 4–0 NJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.