New Jersey Devils at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils
Lightning- Nick PaulGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists2
- Nikita KucherovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:48Anthony Cirelli Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (9), Victor Hedman (12)0–4
- P37:40Victor Hedman Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (15), Jake Guentzel (10)0–3
- P30:39Darren Raddysh Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (14), Anthony Cirelli (12)0–2
- P114:27Nick Paul Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (9), Emil Lilleberg (5)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:27Nick Paul Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (9), Emil Lilleberg (5)NJ 0 – 1 TB · TB 48% → 64% +16TB 48% → 64%+16 pts
- P30:39Darren Raddysh Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (14), Anthony Cirelli (12)NJ 0 – 2 TB · TB 73% → 90% +17TB 73% → 90%+17 pts
- P37:40Victor Hedman Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (15), Jake Guentzel (10)NJ 0 – 3 TB · TB 94% → >99% +5TB 94% → >99%+5 pts
- P319:48Anthony Cirelli Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (9), Victor Hedman (12)NJ 0 – 4 TB · TB 100% → 100% +0TB 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 52%
- ML NJ -120 / TB +100
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- NJ: Elo 44.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NJ -109
- TB +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.3 – 3.2 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +12 | +5 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.30 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +40 Elo | TB 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.58th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+1.0 | Margin | +0.59th of 32 |
| 8th of 3252.1% | Shot share | 49.0%19th of 32 |
| 9th of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 90.4%14th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 6th of 327–3 | Road vs home | 5–25th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–9 | 6–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–8 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–11 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 0–4 TB in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.