Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Jalen ChatfieldGoals1
- Jalen ChatfieldAssists1
- Jalen ChatfieldPoints2
Flyers- Ryan PoehlingGoals1
- Noah CatesAssists1
- Ryan PoehlingPoints1
Scoring summary
- P36:57Jack Roslovic Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (12)4–1
- P36:02Jordan Staal Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Dmitry Orlov (7), Jalen Chatfield (5)3–1
- P31:03Sebastian Aho Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P22:13Ryan Poehling Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Seeler (5), Noah Cates (3)1–1
- P10:30Jalen Chatfield Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (6), William Carrier (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:30Jalen Chatfield Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (6), William Carrier (3)CAR 1 – 0 PHI · CAR 67% → 79% +12CAR 67% → 79%+12 pts
- P22:13Ryan Poehling Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Seeler (5), Noah Cates (3)CAR 1 – 1 PHI · PHI 21% → 36% +15PHI 21% → 36%+15 pts
- P31:03Sebastian Aho Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCAR 2 – 1 PHI · CAR 60% → 82% +22CAR 60% → 82%+22 pts
- P36:02Jordan Staal Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Dmitry Orlov (7), Jalen Chatfield (5)CAR 3 – 1 PHI · CAR 83% → 96% +12CAR 83% → 96%+12 pts
- P36:57Jack Roslovic Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (12)CAR 4 – 1 PHI · CAR 96% → >99% +3CAR 96% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 67%
- ML CAR -230 / PHI +195
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- CAR: Elo 62.3%, market 67.3%
- Fair odds
- CAR -206
- PHI +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.8 – 2.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1575 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −10 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · PHI: Ivan Fedotov: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +87 Elo | CAR 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 64.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 64.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 67.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 324.0 | Goals scored | 2.918th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 3.528th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.6 | Margin | −0.623rd of 32 |
| 1st of 3257.3% | Shot share | 48.6%21st of 32 |
| 9th of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 88.6%28th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–3 | Road vs home | 4–520th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–5 | 9–10 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–5 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 6–11 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 4–1 PHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.