St. Louis Blues at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Jake NeighboursGoals1
- Jordan KyrouAssists1
- Jake NeighboursPoints1
Hurricanes- Eric RobinsonGoals1
- Eric RobinsonAssists2
- Eric RobinsonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P316:47Martin Necas Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Eric Robinson (7), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (9)1–4
- P212:26Martin Necas Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Eric Robinson (6)1–3
- P20:17Eric Robinson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (6), Martin Necas (19)1–2
- P119:35Andrei Svechnikov Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (18), Shayne Gostisbehere (9)1–1
- P16:05Jake Neighbours Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:05Jake Neighbours Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (11)STL 1 – 0 CAR · STL 27% → 41% +14STL 27% → 41%+14 pts
- P119:35Andrei Svechnikov Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (18), Shayne Gostisbehere (9)STL 1 – 1 CAR · CAR 53% → 70% +17CAR 53% → 70%+17 pts
- P20:17Eric Robinson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (6), Martin Necas (19)STL 1 – 2 CAR · CAR 70% → 84% +13CAR 70% → 84%+13 pts
- P212:26Martin Necas Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Eric Robinson (6)STL 1 – 3 CAR · CAR 84% → 94% +10CAR 84% → 94%+10 pts
- P316:47Martin Necas Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Eric Robinson (7), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (9)STL 1 – 4 CAR · CAR >99% → >99% +0CAR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 74%
- ML STL +270 / CAR -340
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- CAR: Elo 67.8%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- CAR -286
- STL +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.5 – 4.0 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1573 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | CAR and STL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +4 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +129 Elo | CAR 67.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 75.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 73.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 4.04th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.54th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.8 | Margin | +1.52nd of 32 |
| 28th of 3246.6% | Shot share | 58.0%1st of 32 |
| 26th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 90.7%13th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 13th of 324–5 | Road vs home | 6–14th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–6 | 11–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 10–5 |
| Underdog | 12–4 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 9–9 | 6–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 2–1 CAR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.