Ottawa Senators at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators
Hurricanes- Jordan MartinookGoals1
- Jordan StaalAssists2
- Jordan MartinookPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:06William Carrier Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Jordan Staal (5), Jordan Martinook (5)0–4
- P30:43Jackson Blake Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (10), Shayne Gostisbehere (8)0–3
- P219:18Sebastian Aho Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (17), Shayne Gostisbehere (7)0–2
- P18:00Jordan Martinook Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (4)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:00Jordan Martinook Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (4)OTT 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 60% → 74% +14CAR 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P219:18Sebastian Aho Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (17), Shayne Gostisbehere (7)OTT 0 – 2 CAR · CAR 78% → 92% +14CAR 78% → 92%+14 pts
- P30:43Jackson Blake Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (10), Shayne Gostisbehere (8)OTT 0 – 3 CAR · CAR 93% → 98% +6CAR 93% → 98%+6 pts
- P315:06William Carrier Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Jordan Staal (5), Jordan Martinook (5)OTT 0 – 4 CAR · CAR >99% → >99% +0CAR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 61%
- ML OTT +145 / CAR -170
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- CAR: Elo 61.7%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- CAR -154
- OTT +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.9 – 3.6 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1569 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | −34 | OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · CAR: Spencer Martin: team allows 0.84 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +83 Elo | CAR 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 63.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 63.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 4.04th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.77th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +1.32nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3255.2% | Shot share | 58.3%1st of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 90.1%17th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 18th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 5–14th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–7 | 10–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 9–5 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 6–10 | 6–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 0–3 CAR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.