St. Louis Blues at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Radek FaksaGoals1
- Alexey ToropchenkoAssists2
- Radek FaksaPoints2
Bruins- Mason LohreiAssists1
- Mason LohreiPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT2:53Brayden Schenn Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Parayko (7)3–2
- P39:18Nathan Walker Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Radek Faksa (2), Alexey Toropchenko (3)2–2
- P112:12Trent Frederic Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Mason Lohrei (5)1–2
- P19:34Trent Frederic Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Georgii Merkulov (1), Charlie McAvoy (4)1–1
- P16:25Radek Faksa Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Scott Perunovich (1), Alexey Toropchenko (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:25Radek Faksa Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Scott Perunovich (1), Alexey Toropchenko (2)STL 1 – 0 BOS · STL 39% → 54% +15STL 39% → 54%+15 pts
- P19:34Trent Frederic Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Georgii Merkulov (1), Charlie McAvoy (4)STL 1 – 1 BOS · BOS 45% → 60% +16BOS 45% → 60%+16 pts
- P112:12Trent Frederic Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Mason Lohrei (5)STL 1 – 2 BOS · BOS 60% → 75% +15BOS 60% → 75%+15 pts
- P39:18Nathan Walker Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Radek Faksa (2), Alexey Toropchenko (3)STL 2 – 2 BOS · STL 16% → 45% +29STL 16% → 45%+29 pts
- OT2:53Brayden Schenn Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Parayko (7)STL 3 – 2 BOS · STL 48% → 97% +49STL 48% → 97%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 61%
- ML STL +150 / BOS -175
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 57.7%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- BOS -159
- STL +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.4 – 3.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −13 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.33 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +54 Elo | BOS 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 64.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 63.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 2.528th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.425th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.9 | Margin | −0.927th of 32 |
| 28th of 3245.7% | Shot share | 48.2%23rd of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 89.2%22nd of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 17th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 5–414th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–6 | 5–13 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 3–8 |
| Underdog | 11–4 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders | 9–8 | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 1–2 BOS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.