Carolina Hurricanes at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Jack RoslovicGoals1
- Dmitry OrlovAssists1
- Jack RoslovicPoints1
Blue Jackets- Kirill MarchenkoGoals2
- Kent JohnsonAssists2
- Kirill MarchenkoPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Sean Monahan Goal Wrist Shot0–1
- P318:54Kirill Marchenko Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (13), Kent Johnson (5)4–4
- P213:23Jackson Blake Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (10)4–3
- P210:39Sebastian Aho Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (22)3–3
- P27:10Dmitri Voronkov Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (4), Zach Werenski (14)2–3
- P25:40Jalen Chatfield Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (9), Martin Necas (21)2–2
- P110:20Kirill Marchenko Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–2
- P16:41Jack Roslovic Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (13)1–1
- P12:04Dante Fabbro Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:40Jalen Chatfield Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (9), Martin Necas (21)CAR 2 – 2 CBJ · CAR 45% → 64% +19CAR 45% → 64%+19 pts
- P27:10Dmitri Voronkov Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (4), Zach Werenski (14)CAR 2 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 37% → 56% +19CBJ 37% → 56%+19 pts
- P210:39Sebastian Aho Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (22)CAR 3 – 3 CBJ · CAR 42% → 63% +21CAR 42% → 63%+21 pts
- P213:23Jackson Blake Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (10)CAR 4 – 3 CBJ · CAR 62% → 80% +18CAR 62% → 80%+18 pts
- P318:54Kirill Marchenko Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (13), Kent Johnson (5)CAR 4 – 4 CBJ · CBJ <1% → 47% +47CBJ <1% → 47%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 68%
- ML CAR -240 / CBJ +200
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- CAR: Elo 62.5%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- CAR -212
- CBJ +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.8 – 2.7 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1575 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | 0 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +89 Elo | CAR 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 69.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 68.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.9 | Goals scored | 3.412th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.5 | Margin | −0.219th of 32 |
| 1st of 3257.5% | Shot share | 52.8%7th of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 88.0%31st of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 7th of 327–4 | Road vs home | 6–38th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–6 | 11–8 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 12–5 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders | 6–13 | 12–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 3–1 CBJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.