Columbus Blue Jackets at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Dante FabbroGoals1
- Kevin LabancAssists1
- Dante FabbroPoints1
Canadiens- Mike MathesonGoals1
- Cole CaufieldAssists2
- Mike MathesonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:55Josh Anderson Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Mike Matheson (11), Lane Hutson (11)1–5
- P312:52Jake Evans Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Cole Caufield (3)1–4
- P311:04Lucas Condotta Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Armia (6)1–3
- P215:49Nick Suzuki Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Armia (5), Arber Xhekaj (1)1–2
- P27:40Dante Fabbro Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (9), Kevin Labanc (9)1–1
- P14:59Mike Matheson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (2), Kirby Dach (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:59Mike Matheson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (2), Kirby Dach (7)CBJ 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 52% → 67% +15MTL 52% → 67%+15 pts
- P27:40Dante Fabbro Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (9), Kevin Labanc (9)CBJ 1 – 1 MTL · CBJ 30% → 48% +19CBJ 30% → 48%+19 pts
- P215:49Nick Suzuki Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Armia (5), Arber Xhekaj (1)CBJ 1 – 2 MTL · MTL 51% → 73% +22MTL 51% → 73%+22 pts
- P311:04Lucas Condotta Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Armia (6)CBJ 1 – 3 MTL · MTL 83% → 97% +14MTL 83% → 97%+14 pts
- P312:52Jake Evans Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Cole Caufield (3)CBJ 1 – 4 MTL · MTL 98% → >99% +2MTL 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 52%
- ML CBJ +100 / MTL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.9 pts
- MTL: Elo 57.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MTL -109
- CBJ +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.2 – 3.3 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1437 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CBJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −2 | CBJ: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +50 Elo | MTL 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 56.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.724th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 4.132nd of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −1.432nd of 32 |
| 7th of 3252.9% | Shot share | 44.2%31st of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 87.5%31st of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 31st of 321–7 | Road vs home | 3–525th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–7 | 7–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | — |
| Underdog | 9–6 | 7–10 |
| Overs–unders | 11–5 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 0–3 MTL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.