Columbus Blue Jackets at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- James van RiemsdykGoals1
- Sean MonahanAssists2
- Sean MonahanPoints2
Bruins- Mason LohreiAssists1
- Mason LohreiPoints1
Scoring summary
- P314:10Yegor Chinakhov Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (9)5–1
- P37:19Justin Danforth Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (7)4–1
- P214:30Charlie Coyle Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Brazeau (4), Mason Lohrei (6)3–1
- P119:28James van Riemsdyk Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (10), Adam Fantilli (6)3–0
- P110:39Mathieu Olivier Goal (6) Backhand, assists: none2–0
- P15:17Dmitri Voronkov Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Sean Monahan (8), Dante Fabbro (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:17Dmitri Voronkov Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Sean Monahan (8), Dante Fabbro (2)CBJ 1 – 0 BOS · CBJ 38% → 53% +15CBJ 38% → 53%+15 pts
- P110:39Mathieu Olivier Goal (6) Backhand, assists: noneCBJ 2 – 0 BOS · CBJ 54% → 69% +15CBJ 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P119:28James van Riemsdyk Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (10), Adam Fantilli (6)CBJ 3 – 0 BOS · CBJ 73% → 86% +12CBJ 73% → 86%+12 pts
- P214:30Charlie Coyle Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Brazeau (4), Mason Lohrei (6)CBJ 3 – 1 BOS · BOS 7% → 18% +11BOS 7% → 18%+11 pts
- P37:19Justin Danforth Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (7)CBJ 4 – 1 BOS · CBJ 92% → 99% +6CBJ 92% → 99%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 63%
- ML CBJ +160 / BOS -190
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 62.7%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- BOS -170
- CBJ +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.9 – 3.6 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | 0 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +91 Elo | BOS 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 67.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 66.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.526th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.424th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.928th of 32 |
| 7th of 3252.5% | Shot share | 47.7%25th of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.0% | Save percentage | 89.2%21st of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321–8 | Road vs home | 5–517th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–8 | 5–14 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 3–9 |
| Underdog | 9–7 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders | 11–6 | 9–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 1–2 BOS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.