Tampa Bay Lightning at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Mitchell ChaffeeGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists3
- Nikita KucherovPoints3
Blue Jackets- Kent JohnsonGoals2
- Sean MonahanAssists3
- Sean MonahanPoints4
Scoring summary
- OT1:26Zach Werenski Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (9), Ivan Provorov (5)6–7
- P311:23Conor Geekie Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Gage Goncalves (1), J.J. Moser (6)6–6
- P310:39Kent Johnson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (13), Sean Monahan (12)5–6
- P26:18Anthony Cirelli Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (10), Nikita Kucherov (18)5–5
- P25:26Yegor Chinakhov Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (8), Mathieu Olivier (3)4–5
- P23:42Zach Werenski Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (12), Sean Monahan (11)4–4
- P22:11Mitchell Chaffee Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Conor Geekie (3)4–3
- P21:55Kent Johnson Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (12), Kirill Marchenko (11)3–3
- P20:28Dmitri Voronkov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (10), Zach Werenski (11)3–2
- P113:35Sean Monahan Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (2), Damon Severson (5)3–1
- P111:52Cam Atkinson Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Victor Hedman (14), Mitchell Chaffee (3)3–0
- P13:58Brandon Hagel Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (17), Anthony Cirelli (13)2–0
- P11:51Brayden Point Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (16), Jake Guentzel (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:26Yegor Chinakhov Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (8), Mathieu Olivier (3)TB 4 – 5 CBJ · CBJ 42% → 61% +19CBJ 42% → 61%+19 pts
- P26:18Anthony Cirelli Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (10), Nikita Kucherov (18)TB 5 – 5 CBJ · TB 38% → 57% +19TB 38% → 57%+19 pts
- P310:39Kent Johnson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (13), Sean Monahan (12)TB 5 – 6 CBJ · CBJ 46% → 80% +33CBJ 46% → 80%+33 pts
- P311:23Conor Geekie Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Gage Goncalves (1), J.J. Moser (6)TB 6 – 6 CBJ · TB 19% → 54% +35TB 19% → 54%+35 pts
- OT1:26Zach Werenski Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (9), Ivan Provorov (5)TB 6 – 7 CBJ · CBJ 48% → 92% +45CBJ 48% → 92%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TB 60%
- ML TB -165 / CBJ +140
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- TB: Elo 53.0%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- TB -149
- CBJ +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.5 – 3.0 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −14 | +3 | TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.36 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +21 Elo | TB 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.213th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.424th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.7 | Margin | −0.218th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 52.4%7th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 88.5%31st of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 12th of 324–5 | Road vs home | 5–39th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–10 | 10–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 7–10 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 2–1 CBJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.