Tampa Bay Lightning at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Darren RaddyshAssists2
- Darren RaddyshPoints2
Penguins- Sam PoulinAssists1
- Matt GrzelcykPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT3:58Brayden Point Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: J.J. Moser (5), Conor Geekie (2)3–2
- P312:49Anthony Cirelli Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (13), Darren Raddysh (4)2–2
- P35:41Brayden Point Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Ryan McDonagh (6), Darren Raddysh (3)1–2
- P213:05Rickard Rakell Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (13), Matt Grzelcyk (8)0–2
- P112:05Jesse Puljujarvi Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Marcus Pettersson (8), Sam Poulin (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:05Jesse Puljujarvi Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Marcus Pettersson (8), Sam Poulin (1)TB 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 40% → 57% +16PIT 40% → 57%+16 pts
- P213:05Rickard Rakell Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (13), Matt Grzelcyk (8)TB 0 – 2 PIT · PIT 64% → 82% +18PIT 64% → 82%+18 pts
- P35:41Brayden Point Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Ryan McDonagh (6), Darren Raddysh (3)TB 1 – 2 PIT · TB 9% → 27% +18TB 9% → 27%+18 pts
- P312:49Anthony Cirelli Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (13), Darren Raddysh (4)TB 2 – 2 PIT · TB 17% → 54% +37TB 17% → 54%+37 pts
- OT3:58Brayden Point Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: J.J. Moser (5), Conor Geekie (2)TB 3 – 2 PIT · TB 51% → >99% +48TB 51% → >99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TB 61%
- ML TB -170 / PIT +145
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- TB: Elo 53.7%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- TB -154
- PIT +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.6 – 2.9 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −3 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +26 Elo | TB 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.821st of 32 |
| 10th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 4.032nd of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.7 | Margin | −1.332nd of 32 |
| 20th of 3248.9% | Shot share | 49.0%19th of 32 |
| 10th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 88.7%27th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 17th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 4–520th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–9 | 7–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 5–8 |
| Overs–unders | 7–9 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 1–2 PIT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.