Dallas Stars at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Matt DucheneGoals1
- Matt DucheneAssists1
- Matt DuchenePoints2
Lightning- Mitchell ChaffeeAssists1
- Mitchell ChaffeePoints1
Scoring summary
- P37:53Roope Hintz Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (7), Jason Robertson (7)4–2
- P36:55Matt Duchene Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Seguin (9)3–2
- P115:49Miro Heiskanen Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (12)2–2
- P18:34Anthony Cirelli Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Emil Lilleberg (6), Brandon Hagel (12)1–2
- P16:05Evgenii Dadonov Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Ilya Lyubushkin (6), Sam Steel (6)1–1
- P14:09Anthony Cirelli Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (11), Mitchell Chaffee (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:05Evgenii Dadonov Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Ilya Lyubushkin (6), Sam Steel (6)DAL 1 – 1 TB · DAL 37% → 52% +15DAL 37% → 52%+15 pts
- P18:34Anthony Cirelli Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Emil Lilleberg (6), Brandon Hagel (12)DAL 1 – 2 TB · TB 48% → 63% +15TB 48% → 63%+15 pts
- P115:49Miro Heiskanen Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (12)DAL 2 – 2 TB · DAL 35% → 52% +17DAL 35% → 52%+17 pts
- P36:55Matt Duchene Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Seguin (9)DAL 3 – 2 TB · DAL 51% → 79% +28DAL 51% → 79%+28 pts
- P37:53Roope Hintz Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (7), Jason Robertson (7)DAL 4 – 2 TB · DAL 80% → 95% +15DAL 80% → 95%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 52%
- ML DAL -120 / TB +100
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- DAL: Elo 48.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- DAL -109
- TB +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.3 – 3.2 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +8 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +11 Elo | TB 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.75th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+1.1 | Margin | +0.69th of 32 |
| 4th of 3254.3% | Shot share | 49.2%19th of 32 |
| 5th of 3291.6% | Save percentage | 90.3%17th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 10th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 6–25th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–9 | 7–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–7 | 4–8 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 7–11 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 1–1 TB in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.