Vegas Golden Knights at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Pavel DorofeyevGoals1
- Alex PietrangeloAssists1
- Pavel DorofeyevPoints1
Avalanche- Valeri NichushkinGoals1
- Valeri NichushkinPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Valeri Nichushkin Goal Wrist Shot0–1
- P213:42Valeri Nichushkin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P213:09Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (15), Alex Pietrangelo (13)1–0
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P213:09Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (15), Alex Pietrangelo (13)VGK 1 – 0 COL · VGK 43% → 65% +21VGK 43% → 65%+21 pts
- P213:42Valeri Nichushkin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneVGK 1 – 1 COL · COL 35% → 57% +22COL 35% → 57%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 60%
- ML VGK +140 / COL -165
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.1 pts
- COL: Elo 52.8%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- COL -149
- VGK +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.0 – 3.5 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −9 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +20 Elo | COL 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 58.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.9 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.830th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.8 | Margin | −0.420th of 32 |
| 9th of 3251.9% | Shot share | 53.2%6th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 87.0%32nd of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 32 |
| 12th of 326–6 | Road vs home | 6–613th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–10 | 7–15 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 4–11 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 15–7 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 3–1 COL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.