Vegas Golden Knights at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Ivan BarbashevGoals1
- Ivan BarbashevAssists1
- Ivan BarbashevPoints2
Flyers- Emil AndraeGoals1
- Rasmus RistolainenAssists1
- Sean CouturierPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Jack Eichel Goal Snap Shot1–0
- P311:55Tanner Pearson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (9), Nicolas Hague (1)4–4
- P218:10Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (16), Tomas Hertl (10)3–4
- P213:18Matvei Michkov Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (6)2–4
- P211:32Ivan Barbashev Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (26)2–3
- P27:42Jack Eichel Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (14)1–3
- P20:28Emil Andrae Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Garnet Hathaway (6), Scott Laughton (6)0–3
- P112:07Sean Couturier Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (15)0–2
- P18:51Morgan Frost Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Ristolainen (4), Owen Tippett (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:51Morgan Frost Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Ristolainen (4), Owen Tippett (7)VGK 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 46% → 62% +16PHI 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P211:32Ivan Barbashev Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (26)VGK 2 – 3 PHI · VGK 16% → 32% +16VGK 16% → 32%+16 pts
- P213:18Matvei Michkov Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (6)VGK 2 – 4 PHI · PHI 68% → 85% +16PHI 68% → 85%+16 pts
- P218:10Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (16), Tomas Hertl (10)VGK 3 – 4 PHI · VGK 13% → 29% +17VGK 13% → 29%+17 pts
- P311:55Tanner Pearson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (9), Nicolas Hague (1)VGK 4 – 4 PHI · VGK 17% → 52% +35VGK 17% → 52%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 54%
- ML VGK -130 / PHI +110
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- VGK: Elo 54.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- VGK -119
- PHI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.4 – 3.1 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −9 | VGK: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · PHI: Ivan Fedotov: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +31 Elo | VGK 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.9 | Goals scored | 2.919th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.527th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.8 | Margin | −0.624th of 32 |
| 9th of 3252.2% | Shot share | 48.6%23rd of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 88.7%26th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–6 | Road vs home | 5–618th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–9 | 9–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–8 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders | 14–7 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 1–1 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.