Vegas Golden Knights at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights
Maple Leafs- Pontus HolmbergGoals1
- John TavaresAssists2
- John TavaresPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:41Pontus Holmberg Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (20), John Tavares (10)0–3
- P33:01William Nylander Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (19), John Tavares (9)0–2
- P18:53Fraser Minten Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: William Nylander (9), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (7)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:53Fraser Minten Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: William Nylander (9), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (7)VGK 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 50% → 65% +15TOR 50% → 65%+15 pts
- P33:01William Nylander Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (19), John Tavares (9)VGK 0 – 2 TOR · TOR 75% → 91% +16TOR 75% → 91%+16 pts
- P316:41Pontus Holmberg Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (20), John Tavares (10)VGK 0 – 3 TOR · TOR >99% → >99% +0TOR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 50%
- ML VGK -110 / TOR -110
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- TOR: Elo 53.0%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- TOR -100
- VGK -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.3 – 3.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −13 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.32 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +21 Elo | TOR 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 324.0 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.66th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.8 | Margin | +0.410th of 32 |
| 8th of 3252.2% | Shot share | 51.3%10th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 91.5%7th of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 19th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 8–36th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–8 | 12–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 7–7 | 8–7 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 4–0 |
| Overs–unders | 13–5 | 8–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 1–1 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.