Edmonton Oilers at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals1
- Leon DraisaitlAssists1
- Leon DraisaitlPoints2
Maple Leafs- Bobby McMannGoals2
- John TavaresAssists1
- Bobby McMannPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:40Mitch Marner Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–4
- P318:31Leon Draisaitl Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (7), Connor McDavid (14)3–3
- P314:07Bobby McMann Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (6)2–3
- P313:08Matthew Knies Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–2
- P21:51Connor McDavid Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (5), Leon Draisaitl (11)2–1
- P13:53Bobby McMann Goal (5) Backhand, assists: John Tavares (8), Mitch Marner (18)1–1
- P11:42Adam Henrique Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mattias Janmark (7), Connor Brown (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:51Connor McDavid Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (5), Leon Draisaitl (11)EDM 2 – 1 TOR · EDM 55% → 72% +17EDM 55% → 72%+17 pts
- P313:08Matthew Knies Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: noneEDM 2 – 2 TOR · TOR 13% → 48% +35TOR 13% → 48%+35 pts
- P314:07Bobby McMann Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (6)EDM 2 – 3 TOR · TOR 48% → 87% +39TOR 48% → 87%+39 pts
- P318:31Leon Draisaitl Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (7), Connor McDavid (14)EDM 3 – 3 TOR · EDM 1% → 51% +50EDM 1% → 51%+50 pts
- OT0:40Mitch Marner Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: noneEDM 3 – 4 TOR · TOR 48% → 91% +42TOR 48% → 91%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 56%
- ML EDM -140 / TOR +120
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.3 pts
- EDM: Elo 44.9%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- EDM -128
- TOR +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.4 – 3.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +16 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.39 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +36 Elo | TOR 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 50.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.66th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.410th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.8% | Shot share | 51.8%9th of 32 |
| 29th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 91.6%5th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 4th of 325–2 | Road vs home | 7–36th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–12 | 11–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–11 | 8–7 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–12 | 7–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 1–1 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.